Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford

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Thomason: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em For Week 10

Andy Dalton has a quality matchup, while Matthew Stafford could have trouble on the horizon.

Jack Thomason
November 07, 2018 - 5:34 pm

(670 The Score) "Sit ‘Em, Start ‘Em" is a breakdown of some of the best and worst fantasy football matchups to help you navigate setting your lineups for the week.

My goal with this article is to provide you with a player to start who may not be the most obvious of starts and to share a player to sit who you normally wouldn't consider shying away from regardless of the matchup.

Quarterback

START – Andy Dalton, Bengals (vs. Saints) The Saints fare the worst against opposing quarterbacks, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA). They're allowing 23.6 points per game, and Dalton has been solid this season. He'll be without his top weapon in A.J. Green, but he should get it done at home with Tyler Boyd and John Ross on the outside and running backs Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard. The Bengals have an implied team total of 24.5-points in a matchup sporting a 54-point over/under, which is the highest on the slate. They're also four-point home underdogs and the Saints are a top-five run defense, so this sets up nicely for Dalton to have plenty of passing attempts. 

SIT – Matt Stafford, Lions (at Bears) Stafford is going to miss Golden Tate as a safety blanket more than many may have thought. In a loss Sunday, he struggled mightily against a Vikings' pass defense that had been taken advantage of by many. Now he'll travel to Chicago, where he'll face off against one of the league's best defenses. That's reflected in the Lions' Vegas team total of 18.5 points. The only teams with fewer projected points are the Dolphins and Bills. The Bears also rank fourth in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA.

Running back

START – Aaron Jones, Packers (vs. Dolphins) It was looking good for Jones until his fourth-quarter fumble Sunday night. He was the clear lead back in a committee with Jamaal Williams, seeing 16 touches, racking up 86 yards and playing 58.1 percent of the snaps. The Packers return home to face a Dolphins team that ranks 28th in aFPA to running backs, and Green Bay is a 10-point home favorite with an implied team total of 28.5 points. This is a get-well spot for Jones and the entire Packers offense.

SIT – Kerryon Johnson, Lions (at Bears) Much like Stafford, there's a lot here to be sour on for Johnson this week. So many signs point at benching Johnson. There's the Vegas team total (18.5), Chicago's run DVOA rank (No. 2), the Lions being 6.5-point road underdogs and Theo Riddick's return last week hurting Johnson's passing game usage. It's an uphill battle to find a reason to start him. Johnson did have 15 touches and see five targets last week, but unless he gets in the end zone, it's unlikely he returns value this Sunday.

Receiver

START – Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers (vs. Dolphins) Similar to Jones, Valdes-Scantling should give you the fantasy production you want this week. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss in New England. The Packers are 3-0-1 at home this season, while the Dolphins are 2-4 since starting the season 3-0  -- and those last two wins have come at home. The Packers should handle them with ease, and Valdes-Scantling will continue to be the beneficiary of the Geronimo Allison injury. 

SIT – Sammy Watkins, Chiefs (vs. Cardinals) You may be asking yourself why I'm recommending benching a Chiefs offensive player. Well, the Cardinals rank eighth in DVOA to No. 2 receivers, and Watkins is third in the pecking order behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Arizona also ranks 11th in aFPA to receivers and while the Chiefs continue to be the league's highest scoring offense, someone generally misses out on a fantasy day. I believe it's Watkins this week. Watkins is also dealing with a foot ailment and may end up seeing the most of opposing cornerback Patrick Peterson.

Tight end

START – Jordan Reed, Redskins (at Buccaneers) There isn't much positivity surrounding the Buccaneers' defense this year. They rank in the bottom quarter in about every statistic, and fantasy points allowed to tight ends is no different. Tampa is ranked 31st in aFPA and 29th in DVOA to the position and with Paul Richardson heading to injured reserve and Jamison Crowder still not healthy, Reed should continue to see plenty of volume. He leads the team with 56 targets.

SIT – David Njoku, Browns (vs. Falcons) Outside of his zero-target game in Week 8, Njoku has been pretty consistent of late with Baker Mayfield under center. But this is a tough matchup, with the Falcons ranking eighth in aFPA and 10th in DVOA to tight ends. While the matchup sets up nicely for Mayfield, it should be Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson taking advantage of the Falcons defense.

Other starts: Baker Mayfield (vs. Falcons), Duke Johnson (vs. Falcons), Tyler Boyd (vs. Saints) and Vance McDonald (vs. Panthers).

Other sits: Dak Prescott (at Eagles), Sony Michel (at Titans), Jordy Nelson (vs. Chargers) and C.J. Uzomah (vs. Saints). 

Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.​