Thomason: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em For Week 11

Derek Carr and Brian Hill have favorable matchups this week.

Jack Thomason
November 13, 2019 - 4:05 pm

(670 The Score) "Sit ‘Em, Start ‘Em" is a breakdown of some of the best and worst fantasy football matchups to help you navigate setting your lineups for the week.

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My goal with this article is to provide you with a player to start who may not be the most obvious of starts and to share a player to sit whom you normally wouldn't consider shying away from regardless of matchup. 

Let's get to it for Week 11.

Quarterback

START – Derek Carr, Raiders (vs. Bengals) Carr has a nice matchup with the Bengals coming to town. The Raiders are currently sitting on the highest implied team total of the week at 29.5 points, and the Bengals are ranked as the NFL's worst pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA and are 28th in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing quarterbacks. Carr has also thrown for at least 285 yards and multiple touchdowns in three of his last four contests. While Josh Jacobs will do plenty of damage on the ground, Carr will help fantasy owners this week too -- especially those suffering from bye week issues.

SIT – Baker Mayfield, Browns (vs. Steelers) The Browns finally earned a win last week as Mayfield threw for 238 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills. While the Bills have one of the better pass defenses in the league, the Steelers have been on another level since acquiring safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. In that span, they rank fourth in both pass defense DVOA and aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, second in forced fumbles (13), second in interceptions (14) and third in sacks (33). This should be a tough week for Mayfield, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Browns lean heavily on their running game with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Running back

START – Brian Hill, Falcons (at Panthers) With Devonta Freeman expected to miss multiple weeks, Hill takes over as the lead back in Atlanta. The Panthers are a run-funnel defense, ranking fourth in pass DVOA yet 32nd in run DVOA and 29th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Hill had 21 touches that totaled 71 yards and a score against a tough Saints defense last week. Now with a juicy matchup and guaranteed workload, Hill should be on your radar as a rock-solid RB2 this week.

SIT – Derrius Guice, Redskins (vs. Jets) Many of us dynasty players continue to wait on Guice and his elite talent, but in re-draft leagues, caution is warranted this week. Guice hasn't played since Week 1, when he totaled 18- yards on 10 carries. The Redskins offense is in the tank with rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins at the helm, and the Jets are no slouch against the run. They rank second in run DVOA and are allowing just 81.9 yards per game on the ground, which is good for second in the NFL. Guice will likely concede some work to Adrian Peterson, who has averaged more than 100 total yards per game since interim coach Bill Callahan took over. Guice is worth holding on to but not worth starting this week. 

Receiver

START – Deebo Samuel, 49ers (vs. Cardinals) Samuel's outlook largely depends on the health of Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle. With Sanders getting injured and Kittle sitting out last week, Samuel led the 49ers with eight receptions and 112 yards on 11 targets. The Cardinals played the 49ers tough two weeks ago in Arizona, and if they can move the ball again, San Francisco is going to have to throw, meaning Samuel will once again be fed targets. Arizona ranks 20th in aFPA to opposing receivers and 26th in pass DVOA.

SIT – Alshon Jeffery, Eagles (vs. Patriots) The Eagles' receivers haven’t played well all year, and Philadelphia has found its stride in the running game. New England was smashed by the run in Baltimore before having its bye week, so there’s good reason to believe Philadelphia attempts to pound the rock and control time of possession. There are rumors that the Patriots will use star cornerback Stephon Gilmore on Eagles star tight end Zach Ertz, but that won't matter much for Jeffery's outlook, because the rest of New England's cover cornerbacks are also playing lights out. Jeffery has also been held to less than 50 yards in four of seven games this year. It should be more tough sledding for him this week before the schedule opens up nicely to end the year. 

Tight end

START – Greg Olsen, Panthers (vs. Falcons) Olsen has been a nice safety valve for Kyle Allen, and he’s coming off an eight-catch, 98-yard performance against Green Bay last week. The Falcons have been pretty good against tight ends, ranking 11th in aFPA to the position, but they did allow Jared Cook to go for six catches and 74 yards on 10 targets last week. With four teams on a bye, Olsen is a top-eight tight end. 

SIT – OJ Howard, Buccaneers (vs. Saints) Howard owners rejoiced as he caught four balls for 47 yards and a score against Arizona last week, but it will be a different story this Sunday. New Orleans ranks seventh in aFPA to tight ends and is allowing just 9.4 points to the position. You probably don't have better options given the byes on tap, but I’d consider streaming someone else this week.

Other starts: Kyle Allen (vs. Falcons), Kenyan Drake (at 49ers), Marquise Brown (vs.Texans) and Jared Cook (at Buccaneers).

Other sits: Jared Goff (vs. Bears), Kalen Ballage (vs. Bills), Allen Robinson (at Rams) and Noah Fant (vs. Dolphins).

Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.​