Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield

Ken Blaze/USA Today Sports

Thomason: Overvalued/Undervalued Fantasy QBs

There's not enough upside to justify selecting Baker Mayfield at his average draft position.

Jack Thomason
August 14, 2019 - 3:57 pm

(670 The Score) -- Fantasy football season is upon us, so it’s time to take a look at some overvalued and undervalued players as you prepare for your drafts. The first position we’ll be examining is quarterback.

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I’ll be using the consensus average draft position (ADP) data from the Fantasy Pros website. Depending on skill position, they use the average from multiple sites -- such as ESPN, Yahoo, CBS -- to come up with the consensus ADP. Based on that information, I’ll share my opinion on who I believe is being drafted too high or too low. 

Let’s get this 2019 fantasy season underway!

OVERVALUED

Andrew Luck, Colts -- Luck is currently being drafted as the fourth overall quarterback. He has a top-notch offensive line and a full complement of weapons, including a healthy T.Y. Hilton and newly acquired receivers Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell to go along with Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle. That being said, Luck has been missing in action throughout training camp. His calf strain has now become more of a high-ankle issue, and that leads to more concern. The Colts are willing to put Luck on the field at 85 to 90 percent health if he can manage the pain and not cause further injury, general manager Chris Ballard said, but we've no idea if Luck will be healthy enough to suit up for the opener in a few weeks. He has the ceiling to be the top overall quarterback, as evidenced by his 39 passing touchdowns and second-most passing attempts (639) in 2018, but I’d be hesitant to draft him in the top five quarterbacks with what we know today. 

Baker Mayfield, Browns -- I love Mayfield. I was happy to see the Browns make him the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft when most thought Sam Darnold should be the choice. Mayfield was a prolific quarterback in college and had one of the best debut seasons we’ve ever seen, setting a rookie record with 27 passing touchdowns and leading the lowly Browns to a 5-2 record down the stretch. While I believe Mayfield can finish as a top-five quarterback, there’s little upside, if any, to be had at his current ADP. Quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Drew Brees are being drafted behind Mayfield. They are all in good offenses, have finished as top QB1s before and aren’t second-year players with a questionable offensive line and a bevy of new personalities on the team. The expectations that the Browns carry this season will also be something new to handle, and they have a rookie head coach and a new offensive coordinator. So while I think Mayfield can finish in the top five, drafting him there leaves little wiggle room to profit.

Other overvalued quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers

UNDERVALUED

Lamar Jackson, Ravens -- I get it. When we think of the Ravens, we think of their rushing offense and Jackson’s mobility. But what if Jackson has made enough strides as a passer to take advantage of new speedy receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin? What if Jackson can be an average passer to complement his incredible rushing ability? If you extrapolate Jackson’s rushing yards over his last seven games in 2018, he’d smash the 1,000-yard rushing mark as a quarterback, and that alone could catapult him into the top 10 at his position. If he sprinkles in an average of 200 passing yards per game with a passing touchdown, the sky's the limit for Jackson in 2019. 

Dak Prescott, Cowboys -- Prescott is being drafted as the 18th fantasy quarterback, and he has yet to finish outside of the top 10 at his position in his three-year NFL career. Something isn’t adding up there. While Prescott lacks consistency in compiling flashy passing yardage totals, he has a knack for scoring rushing touchdowns, having scored six in each of his first three years. Prescott will benefit from the return of Jason Witten at tight end and Travis Frederick at center, the signing of receiver Randall Cobb and the development of second-year receiver Michael Gallup. On top of all of that, let’s not forget that Prescott was a top-six quarterback after receiver Amari Cooper’s arrival in Dallas last season -- and now Cooper will have an entire offseason program with the team. Prescott is always undervalued, but with the swirl of running back Ezekiel Elliot’s holdout and Prescott and Cooper in need of new contracts, there seems to be even more value to take advantage of this season.

Other undervalued quarterbacks: Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins

Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.​