Ostrowski: What To Wager On In Bears-Cowboys

The Bears have only covered the spread in three of their 12 games this season.

Joe Ostrowski
December 04, 2019 - 2:38 pm
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(670 The Score) It’s been a profitable football season of blindly betting against the Bears and taking the under every week. As a 6-6 club holding onto a glimmer of playoff hope, the Bears have covered the point spread in only 25 percent of their games (3-of-12) and gone over the game total 33 percent of the time (4-of-12). 

On Thursday, the Cowboys are a 3-point road favorite against the Bears despite dropping three of their last four contests. The Bears are getting points at Soldier Field after coming out victorious in three of their last four games, albeit against two bottom feeders of the NFC in the Lions and Giants. 

Home underdogs are 32-35-2 this season. The game total of 43 is the highest of any Bears game since Week 1 against the Packers.

Let's check out what to wager on this week.

PICK: Cowboys -3 (a couple of -2.5s are available)

Even though both teams are 6-6, this line implies that the Cowboys are six points better than the Bears on a neutral field. Beyond that, Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has struggled under the lights and against better defenses.

Trubisky owns a 70 passer rating in his eight career primetime games and also has a 70 rating against teams not named the Lions or Redskins this season. He’s thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (nine) at night in his career and been limited to 5.2 yards per attempt and 177.9 yards per game.

Since Pro Bowl defensive lineman Akiem Hicks was injured, the Bears are 1-7 against the spread and are allowing 115.5 rushing yards per game. Take a look at Ezekiel Elliott props, because this a positive matchup for Elliott. There could be some value there as Elliott is coming off four consecutive sub-100-yard games and only had 12 carries last week. 

Dallas outgained Buffalo on Thanksgiving by 70 yards, but two Dak Prescott turnovers and two missed field-goal attempts did them in. The Cowboys offense is No. 1 in yards per play, while the Bears defense ranks seventh.

PICK: Anthony Miller over receiving yards

Miller looks like the receiver whom Bears general manager Ryan Pace moved up to get in the 2018 NFL Draft. Miller has been targeted a combined 33 times over the last three games and caught nine passes for 140 yards last Thursday, both career-high marks. Fellow Bears receiver Taylor Gabriel didn't play last week and is again out this week.

Slot receivers have crushed the Cowboys defense over the last two games. The Bills' Cole Beasley had a game-high 110 yards and a touchdown last Thursday, and the Patriots' Julian Edelman posted a game-high eight catches for 93 yards on Nov. 24.

Touchdown props

First touchdown scored and anytime touchdown are always a fun prop, especially in these standalone games. This is a good spot for Miller’s first touchdown of the season — +250 for an anytime touchdown and +1300 for the first touchdown.

Cowboys receiver Randall Cobb has a history of torching the Bears secondary. Nine of his 44 career touchdowns (20.5%) have come against the Bears — he's +325 for an anytime touchdown and +1800 to score the first touchdown.

Bears cornerback Prince Amukamara is doubtful, which could open opportunity up for second-year undrafted free agent Kevin Toliver to make his second career start. Cowboys star receiver Amari Cooper lines up on the right 47 percent and on the left 38 percent of the time. Dallas could pick on Toliver with Cooper, so those props will also be worth a look.

Joe Ostrowski hosts evenings on 670 The Score. Listen to his weekly sports betting podcast here. When he's not on the Score in evenings, he's also a host of You Better You Bet, which runs from 5-9 p.m. weekdays on Radio.com Sports. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.​