Ostrowski: What To Wager On In Bears-Chargers

Take advantage of Allen Robinson being only receiver whom Mitchell Trubisky trusts.

Joe Ostrowski
October 25, 2019 - 9:10 am

(670 The Score) The preseason Super Bowl odds suggested that the Bears-Chargers game Sunday would be a matchup of top-eight teams, but then the season started. Both clubs need to leapfrog multiple teams to get into the playoff picture of their respective conference.

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After back-to-back losses, the Bears opened as high as 6-point home favorites against the Bolts, but that was knocked down to Chicago -4 and some books have it at -3.5 heading into the weekend. The depressed total of 41 matches the Jaguars-Jets game for the lowest on the board.

The Chargers have received little crowd support since moving into a soccer stadium in 2017, so the Soldier Field atmosphere shouldn’t have much of an impact, especially if the home crowd turns on the Bears offense early. Los Angeles is 8-3 straight up and against the spread in its last 11 road games, but its only cover all year is against the dreadful Miami Dolphins.

Related: Haugh: Bears-Chargers preview

Take a look at the final injury report before placing any wagers on this game, because the Bears should have a huge edge in that department. But we said the same a week ago when the Saints declared Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook out, then they dominated the Bears at Soldier Field.

Special teams ace Sherrick McManus is the lone player on the Bears injury report after suffering a concussion. The Chargers have 11 players on injured reserve, including center Mike Pouncey and safety Derwin James. Star receiver Keenan Allen, their biggest playmaker by a mile, and both starting defensive tackles missed practice Thursday.

Both of these desperate teams have been out-coached on a regular basis this season, so the spread and total aren’t too appealing, but there are some player props to take a look at.

I told you to take David Montgomery's under 48.5 rushing yards last week, but I never thought it would be a two-carry day for the rookie running back when he was healthy. Nagy is under a lot of heat to run the ball against a beat-up defensive line, so I’m not recommending that Montgomery prop again, but I wouldn’t blame you if you went back to that well.

Let's check out what to wager on this week.

PICK: Allen Robinson over receptions

This prop will be higher than the 4.5 of last week, but it would have to be north of 6 for me to stay away. Robinson was targeted a career-high 16 times against the Saints, and it feels like he's the only receiver whom struggling quarterback Mitchell Trubisky trusts. Trubisky won’t throw 54 passes again, but a high percentage will go to his No. 1 option.

PICK: Austin Ekeler over receptions and receiving yards

The Bears defense has allowed an average of 8.4 catches and 66.6 receiving yards to running backs over the last five games. Ekeler is tops among all running backs in receptions and yards per game, and it isn’t a close race. Melvin Gordon’s return three weeks ago hasn’t suppressed Ekeler’s production through the air.

Joe Ostrowski hosts evenings on 670 The Score. Listen to his weekly sports betting podcast here. When he's not on the Score in evenings, he's also a host of You Better You Bet, which runs from 5-9 p.m. weekdays on Radio.com Sports. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.​