Ostrowski: What To Wager On In Bears-Vikings

The Vikings will look to make Mitchell Trubisky beat them with his arm and mind.

Joe Ostrowski
September 27, 2019 - 11:58 am

(670 The Score) The winners of the Bears-Vikings game Sunday will move into a tie with the Packers at 3-1 -- and likely sit atop the NFC North if the underdog Lions fall to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs like most expect.

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The Vikings visit Soldier Field with revenge on their mind after the Bears' win in Week 17 kept Minnesota from reaching the playoffs last season.

The Bears opened as 3-point favorites, but Vikings money has knocked the number below the most important spread in football betting. It’s now the Bears -2, with the low, low total at 38 — team totals of 20 and 18.

These two teams are blessed with strong defenses but cursed with horrific quarterback play at times. Safeties Anthony Harris (1), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (5), Harrison Smith (9) and Eddie Jackson (11) are all in the top 11 of Pro Football Focus' positional rankings.

Let's get to my picks of the week.

PICK: Vikings +2

Minnesota’s offense separates these clubs early as it's fourth in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.4) and fourth in net yards per play (1.3), the latter statistic which accounts for offense and defense. Kirk Cousins owns a wretched 5-25 record against winning teams in his career, but all Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears have accomplished this season is beating a pair of 0-3 teams.

PICK: Trubisky under 227.5 passing yards

Like the Packers and Broncos, the Vikings are going to make Trubisky play quarterback when they face him for the fifth time in his career. He averaged only 164 passing yards in their two matchups in 2018 and was held to 228 yards in 53 dropbacks in a loss against the Packers.

PICK: Cook over 73.5 rushing yards 

In 2019, it isn’t often that we say stopping the run is the key, but Vikings running back Dalvin Cook is the league’s rushing leader. Minnesota calls running plays 61 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. Cousins hasn’t thrown a pass in the fourth quarter in two of the team's first three contests. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t want to put the game in Cousins' hands, so they will continue to feed Cook.

Joe Ostrowski hosts evenings on 670 The Score. Listen to his weekly sports betting podcast here. When he's not on the Score in evenings, he's also a host of You Better You Bet, which runs from 5-9 p.m. weekdays on Radio.com Sports. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.​