Bears running back David Montgomery carries the ball against the Packers.

Mike DiNovo/USA Today Sports

Ostrowski: What To Wager On In Bears-Redskins

David Montgomery should be in line for plenty of work, and the under looks smart.

Joe Ostrowski
September 22, 2019 - 7:24 pm
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(670 The Score) After failing to cover the spread in their first two games and with plenty of issues at quarterback, the Bears are the largest road favorite of Week 3.

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The Bears are now up to 5-point favorites for their matchup against the Redskins on Monday night after sitting at 3.5 to 4 for about six days. The total opened at 42.5 but has since been knocked down to 41, with team totals of 23 for the Bears and 18 for the Redskins.

The Bears money makes some sense this week because the Redskins defense has allowed 6.7 yards per play in their first two games, the fourth-most in the league. Washington has also found a way to lose 16 of 17 Monday night home games since 1998.

Let's get to my picks of the week.

PICK: Under 41

I hesitate to lay the points with the Bears because Mitchell Trubisky has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in his 13 career road starts and owns a 63.4 passer rating in six primetime games. The under has cashed in the Bears' last seven games, so I’ll go back to that well in a Trubisky-Case Keenum duel.

PICK: David Montgomery over 13.5 rushing attempts

From Week 1 to Week 2, Bears running back David Montgomery’s workload increased from seven to 19 touches even though he was only on the field for 44 percent of the snaps in Denver. The spread suggests the Bears should control a low-scoring game, and that means more Montgomery.

PICK: Adrian Peterson under 47.5 rushing yards

Washington had the NFL’s third-worst running game through two weeks, averaging 2.5 yards per attempt, and Chicago' stout defense has allowed only 3.0 yards per rush. Beyond that, Adrian Peterson gained only 25 yards on 10 carries in Week 2 to open his 13th season. The Redskins also gave carries to Steven Sims Jr., Chris Thompson and Wendell Smallwood. Good luck establishing the run if you’re trailing.

Some other looks ...

The Redskins' pass defense is a mess — cornerback Josh Norman is a shell of himself, Jimmy Moreland is the 75th-ranked cornerback in the league, per Football Focus, and former Bears linebacker Jon Bostic is expected to pick up running backs in coverage. You should consider Tarik Cohen going over 31.5 receiving yards, Taylor Gabriel going over 28.5 receiving yards or an Anthony Miller prop -- if you can find one.

Joe Ostrowski hosts evenings on 670 The Score. Listen to his weekly sports betting podcast here. When he's not on the Score in evenings, he's also a host of You Better You Bet, which runs from 5-9 p.m. weekdays on Radio.com Sports. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.​