Bears coach Matt Nagy

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Ostrowski: 7 Reasons To Bet Bears' Under Of 9.5 Wins

Vic Fangio's exit and a tough schedule mean 2019 will be tougher for the Bears.

Joe Ostrowski Show
April 05, 2019 - 12:33 pm

(670 The Score) While there remains a final wave of free agency and the important NFL Draft to play out, the Bears' over/under wins total has already been posted by Vegas.

It was set at 9.5 wins.

So, fresh off a 12-4 season, how will the Bears fare in 2019? Will they go over or under 9.5 wins?

670 The Score evening host Joe Ostrowski believes they're going under. He provided seven reasons why on his show Tuesday evening:

1) Health regression
The Bears had the fewest players in the NFL placed on injured reserve in 2018. Their health is likely to regress to the mean and encounter more difficulty.

2) Departure of Vic Fangio
Regarded by many as the best defensive coordinator in the game, Fangio left the Bears to become the Broncos head coach. While the Pagano hire looks like a fit and was praised, he's still a downgrade from Fangio.

3) Downgrade in secondary
The Bears lost safety Adrian Amos and nickel cornerback Bryce Callahan in free agency. They replaced them with at safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and nickel cornerback Buster Skrine. That's a downgrade in the secondary, even if the Bears can get by just fine.

4) Kicker
The Bears still don't have an answer at kicker after cutting Cody Parkey in March, signing a pair of street free agents but not putting financial resources toward a veteran, proven option.

5) Schedule
After playing fellow last-place teams in 2018 because of their finish in the bottom of the NFC North in 2017, the Bears have a slate that includes fellow reigning division champions. They also face the tough AFC West -- which boasted two 12-win teams in the Chiefs and Chargers in 2018 -- instead of the AFC East.

6) Turnover regression
The Bears led the NFL with 36 takeaways in 2018. History suggests that's unlikely to repeat itself.

7) History of worst-to-first turnarounds
Teams that go from worst to first in their divisions often don't keep up their elite play in their third season.